New Poll Reveals Dead Heat in New Jersey’s 2025 Gubernatorial Race

The race for New Jersey Governor is now a statistical tie, with Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli both polling at 43%, according to a new Emerson College Polling/Pix 11/The Hill survey released this morning. The poll indicates that 11% of voters remain undecided in the contest for the 2025 gubernatorial election.

This marks a significant shift, as it’s the first time since 2024 that four-term Congresswoman Sherrill is not leading in either primary or general election matchups. The results align closely with an internal poll conducted for the Ciattarelli campaign, which previously showed him ahead by one point.

Digging into the demographics, the poll reveals stark age-based divisions. Sherrill holds a substantial lead among voters under 40 (58% to 24%), and a narrower advantage among those in their 40s (47% to 40%). However, Ciattarelli flips the script with voters over 50, where he leads Sherrill 52% to 36%.

Beyond the gubernatorial race, the survey also gauged approval ratings for national and state figures. Former President Donald Trump registers a 41%-51% job approval rating, while New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy stands at 35%-44% upside-down. On the pressing issue of rising utility costs, 30% of voters attribute responsibility to utility companies, 22% to the governor, and 7% to the federal government, with 35% believing all are responsible. Partisan splits show Democrats largely blaming utility companies (36%) and Republicans primarily faulting Governor Murphy (36%).

The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted from September 22-23, 2025, involving a sample of 935 likely voters, and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.

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