Europe Grapples with Looming Trump-Putin Summit: Fears of Ukraine Deal and Alliance Rift

European capitals are gripped by apprehension as a swiftly announced summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump approaches. Concerns are mounting that Putin aims to strategically divide the transatlantic alliance and dictate terms for Ukraine, potentially leaving Europe marginalized.

Diplomatic sources, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the situation, expressed deep unease, fearing Europe could become a mere ‘footnote in history.’ A significant part of this anxiety stems from the lack of clarity regarding the Kremlin’s proposals to halt fighting in Ukraine, with no details emerging from Putin or US envoy Steve Witkoff following recent meetings.

President Trump’s own comments post-meeting, hinting at a ‘very complicated’ situation involving ‘swapping of territories, to the betterment of both,’ have only heightened European fears. There’s little indication Putin has wavered from his maximalist demands, which include territorial concessions and limiting Ukraine’s sovereignty and military capabilities, effectively turning it into a Russian ‘punching bag.’

European leaders, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and the EU, along with Poland and Finland, issued a joint statement reaffirming their commitment to the principle that international borders must not be altered by force. They pressed US Vice President JD Vance for clarity on the upcoming negotiations.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Trump administration has offered varying descriptions of Putin’s ceasefire demands since August 6, with a consistent thread being the insistence on Ukrainian forces withdrawing from all remaining parts of the Donetsk region, including key cities like Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Such a concession would dismantle Ukraine’s fortified defensive line, exposing it to future aggression.

The current situation draws stark parallels to the 1938 Munich Agreement. Unanswered questions persist about Putin’s demands regarding Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea’s sovereignty, especially given Ukraine’s constitutional stance against ceding territory. Europeans insist a ceasefire must precede any territorial talks, with the current line of contact as the negotiation starting point.

Another major unknown is Russia’s willingness to accept a European ‘reassurance force’ to guarantee a ceasefire, with current indications suggesting opposition to any NATO member involvement. Despite European efforts to secure ‘robust and credible security guarantees’ for Ukraine, experts suggest their influence may be limited, highlighting Europe’s struggle to forge a strategic identity independent of US policy.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas emphasized that any US-Russia deal must include Ukraine and the EU, given the implications for both Ukraine’s and Europe’s security. Analysts like Mick Ryan argue that Europe’s precarious position is exacerbated by what he perceives as a lack of coherent US strategy on Ukraine, driven more by ‘anger, impulses, social media posts’ and President Trump’s desire for a Nobel Peace Prize.

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