BRICS Summit Underway in Rio: Geopolitical Tensions Muted Amid Key Absences and Trump’s Shadow

The BRICS bloc of developing economies has convened its summit in Rio de Janeiro, with discussions expected to proceed cautiously amidst sensitive geopolitical topics and the significant influence of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. The two-day gathering, taking place Sunday and Monday, aims to navigate pressing issues such as the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, recent attacks involving Israel and Iran, and the spectre of Trump’s trade tariffs.

Analysts and diplomats point to a palpable lack of cohesion within the expanded BRICS, which doubled in size last year, as a key factor limiting its ambition to emerge as a formidable global power pole. This internal fragmentation, coupled with a desire to avoid antagonizing the current U.S. administration, has led to a notably moderate agenda. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is pushing for priorities like artificial intelligence governance and climate change to take center stage, despite the absence of several key leaders.

Notable no-shows include Chinese President Xi Jinping, marking his first absence from a BRICS summit since 2012, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is participating via videoconference due to an international arrest warrant. Other significant absences include Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Egypt’s Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, both countries having joined BRICS in 2024. Saudi Arabia, though invited, has yet to confirm its full participation.

The restrained tone in Rio contrasts sharply with last year’s summit in Kazan, where Russia sought to develop alternatives to U.S.-dominated payment systems. Sources close to the negotiations reveal internal divisions, with some members advocating for stronger language on the Middle East conflicts, while Brazil reportedly prioritizes a technical and less controversial approach. Experts anticipate a vague final declaration, a stance potentially facilitated by the absences of Xi and Putin, who typically advocate for a more robust anti-Western position.

Brazil, as the current chair, has strategically prioritized less contentious issues such as global cooperation in healthcare, trade, investment, and institutional development. This cautious approach is largely driven by a desire to shield the Brazilian economy from potential tariffs and scrutiny from the Trump administration. Despite the conservative agenda and prominent absences, the summit remains crucial for attendees seeking to diversify economic partnerships and respond to the instability caused by global trade disputes, offering a platform for emerging economies to find common ground ahead of significant events like November’s COP 30 climate talks in Belém.

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