Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Revised Assessment of Lunar Impact Probability
Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Revised Assessment of Lunar Impact Probability
Recent observations by NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope have led to a reassessment of the potential impact risk posed by asteroid 2024 YR4. While initial concerns focused on a potential Earth collision, the probability of this event has been significantly reduced. However, the likelihood of an impact with the Moon has increased.
Initially classified as a “city killer” due to its estimated size of 174-220 feet (approximately the size of a 10-story building), 2024 YR4 briefly presented a historically high 3.1% chance of impacting Earth. Subsequent observations lowered this probability to a negligible 0.28%. This near-Earth asteroid, with an orbit that brings it into Earth’s vicinity, was a subject of planetary defense interest due to its size and initial impact probability exceeding the 1% threshold.
The focus has now shifted to the potential for a lunar impact. Following Webb Telescope observations in March and May 2025, the probability of 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon has risen to 4.3%. While this remains a relatively low probability, it represents a notable increase from earlier estimates. It’s important to note that even a collision of this magnitude is not expected to significantly alter the Moon’s orbit around Earth.
The May 2025 observations, conducted by the James Webb Space Telescope, were the last opportunity to observe 2024 YR4 before it disappears from view, only to reappear in 2028. NASA has already planned further observations at that time. Until then, the current 4.3% probability of a lunar impact remains the most current assessment. This situation highlights the ongoing importance of asteroid monitoring and the role of advanced telescopes like the James Webb in refining our understanding of near-Earth object trajectories and potential risks.
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