FEMA Maps Under Scrutiny After Deadly Camp Mystic Flooding
FEMA Maps Under Scrutiny After Deadly Camp Mystic Flooding
New analysis reveals that the federal government significantly underestimated flood risks at Camp Mystic, the site of more than two dozen fatalities during the recent Texas floods over the July 4 holiday weekend. Data from climate risk modeling company First Street indicates that at least 17 structures at the camp were in the path of floodwaters, a stark contrast to FEMA’s previous assessments. This includes at least four cabins for young campers located in areas FEMA designated as extreme flood hazards.
The findings, a collaborative investigation by NPR, PBS’s FRONTLINE, and data scientists, highlight a critical and long-standing issue with FEMA’s flood maps. For decades, these maps have often failed to account for rainfall and flash flooding, relying instead on data from coastal storm surges and large river flooding. This oversight is particularly concerning as climate change intensifies rainfall.
Nationwide, First Street’s analysis suggests that more than double the number of Americans live in dangerous flood-prone areas than FEMA’s maps indicate, leaving countless homeowners and local officials unaware of the true risks. Jeremy Porter, head of Climate Implications at First Street, emphasized the human cost: “The unknown flood risk is bad from a preparation, financial standpoint, but there’s a human element here that often gets overlooked.”
The repercussions are severe; for instance, 98 percent of homes damaged during Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina last year were not on FEMA’s maps, precluding many homeowners from flood insurance claims and necessary building precautions. Experts like Jim Blackburn of Rice University’s Severe Storm Prevention, Education and Evacuation from Disaster Center stressed the danger of floodways, stating, “No one should be in a floodway.” At Camp Mystic, eight buildings, including the dining hall and four camper cabins, appear to be within such designated floodways.
Despite FEMA’s longstanding awareness of these mapping deficiencies, the agency reportedly lacks the congressional mandate and funding to address them. Political hurdles and lobbying efforts from groups like home developers’ associations have also contributed to delays in updating the nation’s flood maps. Kerr County officials, citing the ongoing emergency, declined to comment on the situation, though the county did pass ordinances in 2020 to tighten building rules in high-risk areas.
As communities grapple with increasingly frequent and intense weather events, experts like Blackburn argue that it is no longer sufficient to label these occurrences as rare. He asserts that the science is solid, and what’s needed is “reasonable decision making based on the best available science,” which is currently lacking.
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