Asteroid 2024 YR4: Updated Probability of Lunar Impact in 2032

Asteroid 2024 YR4, initially identified as a potential threat to Earth, has shifted its focus, so to speak. While the risk of a terrestrial impact has been effectively eliminated, recent data suggests a notable probability of a lunar collision in December 2032.

Early assessments placed the odds of an Earth impact at 3.1%, the highest ever recorded for an asteroid of its size (approximately 174 to 220 feet in length). However, by February 2024, NASA’s trajectory calculations ruled out any Earth strike, reducing the probability to near zero.

The narrative took a turn with new observations from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) in May 2025. These observations, improving the asteroid’s projected position by nearly 20%, increased the likelihood of a lunar impact to 4.3%, up from a previous estimate of 3.8%. While still relatively low, this probability warrants continued monitoring.

A lunar impact by 2024 YR4, while not threatening the Moon’s orbit, would create a crater potentially visible from Earth with sufficient telescopic magnification. This event would offer a unique opportunity for scientific study, providing invaluable real-time data on crater formation processes.

Due to the asteroid’s current distance, further observation is not possible until 2028. Until then, the probability of a lunar impact remains a subject of ongoing analysis and speculation. The scientific community will be closely monitoring 2024 YR4’s trajectory as it becomes observable again.

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