Erin Rapidly Intensifying, Projected to Become Season’s First Major Category 3 Hurricane This Weekend
Erin Rapidly Intensifying, Projected to Become Season’s First Major Category 3 Hurricane This Weekend
Tropical Storm Erin is undergoing rapid intensification and is now projected to become the first major Category 3 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season by this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of Thursday morning, Erin was located approximately 990 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.
NHC hurricane specialists forecast Erin to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane by Friday afternoon, with significant intensification expected into Saturday. By early Sunday, it is projected to reach major hurricane status with winds of 115 mph, potentially peaking at 125 mph sustained winds by early Tuesday. The system is moving over warmer waters with less wind shear, creating an increasingly favorable environment for development.
While the current forecast track keeps the storm’s center away from direct landfall, the NHC advises the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico to closely monitor Erin’s progress. Swells from the storm are expected to begin affecting these areas by this weekend, with tropical storm-force winds possible in the Leewards by Friday night and in the Bahamas by Sunday. Dangerous surf and rip currents are also increasing across the western Atlantic basin next week, potentially impacting the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda.
Separately, the NHC is also tracking a broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, west of the Yucatan Peninsula, though its chances of tropical cyclone formation are low (20%) as it is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late Friday.
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