New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary: Conflicting Poll Results Show Tight Race Between Cuomo and Mamdani
New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary: Conflicting Poll Results Show Tight Race Between Cuomo and Mamdani
The Democratic primary for the New York City mayoral race is proving to be highly competitive, with conflicting poll results released in the days leading up to the election highlighting a tight race between former Governor Andrew Cuomo and State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani.
An Emerson College poll, conducted in conjunction with PIX11 and The Hill between Wednesday and Friday, June 20-22, and released on Monday, June 25, projected a victory for Mamdani after eight rounds of ranked-choice voting. The poll surveyed 833 registered Democrats, including early voters, and had a margin of error of ±3.4%. While Cuomo led in the first round with 36.4% support compared to Mamdani’s 33.7%, the ranked-choice simulation showed Mamdani winning 51.8% to Cuomo’s 48.2%. This projection followed the elimination of Brad Lander in the seventh round. The poll also revealed demographic splits, with voters under 50 favoring Mamdani by a 2:1 margin, while Cuomo held a lead among older voters. Women favored Cuomo (52%-48%), and men favored Mamdani (56%-44%).
A separate Marist University poll, conducted June 9-12 and released on Wednesday, June 27, showed Cuomo with a narrower lead. This poll, which surveyed 1,350 likely Democratic primary voters and had a margin of error of ±4.3%, indicated Cuomo as the first choice for 38% of voters and Mamdani for 27%. The Marist simulation, however, projected a Cuomo victory in the seventh round of ranked-choice voting. This poll was conducted before a cross-endorsement between Mamdani and Brad Lander, and a Democratic debate.
Another poll, commissioned by the pro-Cuomo super PAC Fix the City and released on Monday, June 25, showed Cuomo defeating Mamdani by a 52%-28% margin after seven rounds of ranked-choice voting.
The Emerson poll highlighted that over 380,000 New York Democrats had already cast early ballots, primarily from Brooklyn and Manhattan. Mamdani held a 10-point lead among these early voters, according to the Emerson poll. The high temperatures predicted for Election Day (potentially reaching 106 degrees Fahrenheit) could potentially impact voter turnout, particularly among older voters who tend to favor Cuomo and vote on Election Day.
Mamdani’s campaign platform includes a rent freeze for stabilized tenants and the creation of city-owned grocery stores. Cuomo’s campaign, and supporting super PACs, have focused on criticisms of Mamdani’s past statements, including his response to the phrase “globalize the intifada,” which he has denied using. Mamdani has also accused Israel of genocide against Palestinians.
The New York City Board of Elections will not begin tabulating ranked-choice ballots until the following week, making it unlikely that a winner will be declared on primary night unless a candidate secures a simple majority in the first round, a scenario deemed unlikely.
Both Cuomo and Mamdani have used social media to address the polls and encourage voter turnout. Cuomo emphasized the importance of voting to restore effective leadership, while Mamdani highlighted the potential to “topple a political dynasty.”
In summary, conflicting poll results indicate a close and highly contested Democratic primary for the New York City mayoral race between Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani. The outcome will depend on both early voting totals and Election Day turnout, particularly given the predicted extreme heat.
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