Israel’s audacious strike: Did it halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions or ignite a dangerous escalation?

Deep within Iran’s Zagros Mountains, a clandestine operation unfolded. Centrifuges, spinning at breakneck speeds in Natanz’s fortified tunnels, formed the heart of Iran’s sensitive nuclear program – a program largely untouched until recently.

This month, Israeli warplanes breached Iranian airspace, launching a daring attack on multiple nuclear sites, including facilities previously deemed impenetrable. Initial assessments from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), corroborated by satellite imagery, suggest the strikes on Natanz were devastating, crippling the underground facility’s power supply.

The raid shattered the precarious Middle East nuclear status quo, raising a critical question: Will Iran, facing this unprecedented challenge, accelerate its pursuit of a nuclear weapon as the ultimate deterrent?

For over a decade, Iran carefully operated near the threshold of nuclear breakout capability. However, this spring, that restraint vanished. In May, the IAEA reported Iran had amassed approximately 120 kg of uranium enriched to 60% – perilously close to weapons-grade levels – enough for 22 bombs within five months, given further enrichment. Simultaneously, Iran initiated construction of a third enrichment hall.

The U.S. viewed this as provocation; Israel, as a casus belli. The swift, targeted Israeli strikes on June 13th aimed to cripple Iran’s nuclear weapon capabilities by targeting enrichment sites, scientists, and military officials.

While the strikes disrupted enrichment operations, Iran retains expertise and stockpiled materials, now possessing a stronger incentive to further conceal its program. Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, warns, “If Iran survives the conflict, they could decide that a nuclear weapon is the only way to have deterrence.”

The possibility remains that Iran could attempt a nuclear weapons push at remaining sites like Fordo, buried deep within mountains near Qom, requiring the U.S.’s most powerful bunker-buster to penetrate.

The incident highlights the failure of diplomatic efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear program. Richard Nephew, who worked on Iran sanctions during the Obama administration, states, “Trying to get to a deal now is infinitely harder than it used to be.”

However, others offer a more optimistic perspective. Matt Kroenig of the Atlantic Council suggests, “We were on the verge of Iran becoming a nuclear power and it looks like now we’ve set that threat into the future.”

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