Mamdani Overtakes Cuomo in Final NYC Mayoral Poll Before Tuesday’s Primary

With just hours to go before Tuesday’s Democratic primary for New York City mayor, a stunning new poll has thrown the race into chaos. The Emerson College, PIX11, and The Hill poll shows Zohran Mamdani edging out frontrunner Andrew Cuomo, a result that sharply contradicts other recent surveys.

While Cuomo maintains a slight lead in first-choice votes (36.4% to Mamdani’s 33.7%), the ranked-choice voting system is expected to be crucial. The poll projects Mamdani winning after eight rounds of ranked-choice tabulation, securing a 51.8% to 48.2% victory.

The poll’s release has ignited a firestorm. Mamdani’s campaign is celebrating the results as evidence of growing momentum, highlighting his message of prioritizing working-class New Yorkers. Cuomo’s campaign, however, has dismissed the poll as an outlier, pointing to other surveys showing Cuomo with a double-digit lead.

The unexpected shift is partly attributed to the recent cross-endorsement between Mamdani and Brad Lander, who placed third in the poll. Lander’s supporters appear likely to rank Mamdani second, potentially boosting his chances in the ranked-choice count. The endorsement of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders also gave Mamdani’s campaign a significant boost, though it also fueled controversy.

Cuomo’s campaign has seized on Mamdani’s past statements, particularly his defense of the phrase “globalize the intifada,” accusing him of aligning with antisemitic causes. Mamdani denies these accusations, stating he doesn’t use that phrase and that the attacks are politically motivated.

With over 384,000 New Yorkers already having cast early ballots – more than double the number in the 2021 primary – the outcome remains uncertain. The city’s Board of Elections won’t begin tabulating ranked-choice ballots until next week, making a definitive result unlikely on Tuesday night unless a candidate secures a majority in the first round, a scenario deemed improbable.

This dramatic shift in the polls underscores the volatility of the NYC mayoral race and the significant role ranked-choice voting will play in determining the city’s next leader.

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