New COVID Variant NB.1.8.1: A Summer Surge on the Horizon?

A new COVID-19 variant, NB.1.8.1, is rapidly gaining ground in the United States. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that it now accounts for a significant 37% of all COVID-19 cases, trailing only the currently dominant LP.8.1 variant by a mere percentage point.

First identified in late January and designated a “variant of interest” by the World Health Organization (WHO) in mid-May, NB.1.8.1’s surge is raising concerns. Globally, it’s estimated to be responsible for about a quarter of all cases. While it has been linked to recent surges in hospitalizations in parts of Asia, the current situation in the U.S. remains relatively stable.

The U.S. test positivity rate is currently around 3%, and hospitalizations and deaths remain low. Experts emphasize that NB.1.8.1 doesn’t appear to cause more severe illness than other circulating variants, and current vaccines are still expected to be effective against it. However, its increased transmissibility, suggested by early evidence, and the relatively quiet winter for COVID-19, could set the stage for a summer resurgence.

Edoardo Colzani, head of the Respiratory Viruses unit at the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, notes that while NB.1.8.1 isn’t expected to pose a greater public health risk than other Omicron subvariants, waning population immunity, particularly among older adults and high-risk individuals, could increase vulnerability as virus activity rises. The possibility of a summer surge serves as a reminder of COVID-19’s enduring presence, even as its severity has lessened thanks to widespread vaccination and acquired immunity.

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