Iran’s Leadership Future: Succession Race Intensifies After Recent Conflict

Following the intense 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran in June, questions regarding the succession of Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have gained critical urgency. His advanced age and status as a potential target during the recent hostilities have reignited speculation about who will next lead the Islamic Republic.

The process of selecting a new supreme leader has only occurred once before, in 1989, when Khamenei succeeded Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Now, nearly four decades later, this pivotal transition is again at the forefront, according to Iran expert Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins University. He notes that recent events, including the conflict with Israel and US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, have made the succession a matter of state preservation and continuity.

While the Assembly of Experts, an 80-member clerical body, is technically responsible for selection, they largely rubber-stamp the Supreme Leader’s choice. Potential successors range from hardliners like Khamenei’s son Mojtaba and Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the revolution’s founder, to more reform-minded figures such as former presidents Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami.

Experts like Afshan Ostovar of the Naval Postgraduate School suggest Khamenei may keep his choice private to protect the heir-apparent from political attacks. Traditionally, the successor must be a cleric to maintain the Islamic Republic’s foundational principles. However, Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group posits a radical alternative: the next leader might not be a religious figure at all. Given Iran’s economic struggles, societal discontent, and the recent decimation of its military, the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) might view the clerical establishment as a liability and seek a more military-aligned leadership.

The character of the next leader is also a key consideration. Powerbrokers may prefer a seemingly weaker figure over whom they can exert influence, mirroring Khamenei’s own rise. The IRGC already holds significant sway, effectively running the country behind a civilian facade, controlling vast sectors of the economy, media, and decision-making circles.

Furthermore, the manner of Khamenei’s death could significantly impact the outcome. A natural death might pave the way for a moderate leader, while an assassination could lead to a hardline cleric taking control to ensure state continuity.

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