Social Security’s Looming Funding Crisis: A 2024 Analysis of the Trustees’ Report

The Social Security Administration’s annual report, released in 2024, projects a concerning depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund (OASI) by 2033. This projection remains unchanged from the previous year’s assessment. At this point, the report indicates that only 77% of scheduled benefits will be payable.

The combined OASI and Disability Insurance (DI) trust funds are projected to be able to cover scheduled benefits and administrative costs until 2034—a one-year earlier depletion than projected in the preceding report. The payable percentage at this point is estimated to be 81%. It’s crucial to note that while this combined depletion date serves as a key indicator of Social Security’s financial health, current legislation prohibits the merging of these funds.

Further exacerbating the situation, the Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund, responsible for Medicare Part A benefits, faces an even earlier projected insolvency—2033. This represents a three-year acceleration compared to last year’s projections.

The sheer scale of the program is undeniable. Social Security Commissioner Frank Bisignano highlighted that approximately 70 million individuals currently receive benefits, supported by the contributions of 185 million working Americans through payroll taxes (6.2% for Social Security and 1.45% for Medicare from employees, with employers typically matching these contributions; self-employed individuals pay a combined 15.3%).

The Trump administration previously identified the financial health of these trust funds as a top priority. Commissioner Bisignano has reiterated the urgent need for Congressional action to “protect and strengthen” the system. This sentiment is echoed by advocates for Social Security beneficiaries, such as AARP CEO Myechia Minter-Jordan, who emphasized the necessity of Congressional intervention to safeguard the program’s long-term viability, especially considering America’s aging population.

The current structure relies on the trust funds to supplement ongoing payroll tax revenue when expenditures exceed income. To address the projected shortfall, Congress faces difficult choices: raising taxes, reducing benefits, or implementing a combination of both strategies. The ongoing debate surrounding these options underscores the critical need for immediate and decisive action to secure the future of Social Security.

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