IEA Slashes 2030 Global Renewable Energy Forecast Amid US and China Policy Shifts

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly scaled back its forecast for global renewable power growth by 2030, projecting a substantial shortfall compared to previous estimates. In a report released this Tuesday, the Paris-based agency now anticipates total renewable capacity to reach only 4,600 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, a sharp reduction from last year’s projection of 5,500 GW.

This downgrade, which represents a 900 GW reduction from the 2024 estimate, casts serious doubt on the global ambition to triple renewable energy use by the end of the decade as a crucial measure to combat climate change.

The IEA attributes the weakened outlook primarily to policy challenges in the United States and China. In the US, the early phase-out of federal tax incentives, initially outlined in President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” is identified as a key factor dampening investment. Meanwhile, China’s shift from guaranteed electricity prices for renewable energy projects to more competitive auctions is constraining profitability and slowing growth.

Despite the overall gloomy forecast, the report highlights brighter spots. India is on track to meet its 2030 targets and is set to become the second-largest growth market for renewables, with capacity projected to increase 2.5 times in just five years. The IEA also raised its forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa by 25 percent, alongside more positive outlooks for Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain.

Solar power continues to lead the charge in renewable development, accounting for approximately 80 percent of global growth in the sector over the past five years, followed by wind, water, biomass, and geothermal power. However, the outlook for offshore wind power has been revised lower due to policy changes in key countries, particularly the US, where some projects already under construction have faced halts.

The IEA emphasized that the deployment of renewables remains vital for enhancing energy diversification and security, noting its significant role in reducing fuel import needs for many nations amidst the current geopolitical climate.

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