Urgent Warning: Russia Accused of Orchestrating Violent Unrest in Moldova Post-Election
Urgent Warning: Russia Accused of Orchestrating Violent Unrest in Moldova Post-Election
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has issued an urgent warning, asserting that the Kremlin is actively preparing to instigate potentially violent protests aimed at ousting Moldovan President Maia Sandu following the parliamentary elections on September 28. With polls suggesting a tight race and no clear majority, Russia is reportedly setting conditions to generate post-election unrest, regardless of the outcome.
Recent intelligence indicates a multi-pronged Russian strategy. On September 23, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) baselessly claimed NATO is planning an invasion of Moldova, likely to fuel anti-Western sentiment and justify Russian actions. These claims misrepresent upcoming NATO exercises in Romania, which Russia is expected to further distort.
Crucially, Russian intelligence officers are reportedly training Moldovans in Serbia and within Moldova itself on how to stage provocations and escalate protests into violence. Moldovan Chief Prosecutor Victor Furtuna and Intelligence and Security Service Director Alexandru Musteata confirmed these trainings, implicating a Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate (GRU) officer and Kremlin-linked politician Ilan Shor in financing and coordinating the efforts.
Moreover, Kremlin documents from Spring 2025, reviewed by Bloomberg, reportedly detail plans to recruit individuals from sports clubs and criminal networks for violent provocations during and after the elections, with the ultimate goal of undermining support for President Sandu and her pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). These plans include calls for Sandu’s resignation or allegations of election fraud if PAS wins.
Kremlin proxies like Igor Dodon and Ilan Shor have already begun injecting narratives into the Moldovan information space, claiming Sandu might annul the elections or that PAS is preparing for “massive fraud.” These narratives aim to delegitimize the government and democratic process, setting the stage for protests demanding either the prevention of annulment or an annulment if PAS wins.
ISW warns that Russia’s campaign is increasingly sophisticated, combining traditional election interference with new tactics, including potential reflexive control to manipulate Moldovans into calling for Sandu’s removal. This intensive effort underscores the Kremlin’s enduring strategic objective to reassert influence over Moldova, even amidst its ongoing war in Ukraine. The international community is urged to monitor the situation closely as Moldova approaches its critical election day.
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