Modi and Xi Forge Closer Ties Amidst US Tariff Pressure, Geopolitical Realignment

India and China’s leaders, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping, recently met in Tianjin, marking a significant step towards de-escalating tensions and exploring renewed cooperation. The high-stakes meeting, which follows a period of strained relations, comes as India navigates complex geopolitical currents, particularly new economic pressures from the United States.

The backdrop to this rapprochement includes the Trump administration’s imposition of substantial tariffs on Indian imports, a move that has significantly impacted Delhi’s economic strategy. Faced with this pressure from a traditional ally, India appears to be seeking alternative opportunities, pragmatically turning towards its neighbor, the world’s second-largest economy.

While official statements were light on specifics, immediate takeaways from the Tianjin summit include the resumption of direct flights between the two nations and simplified visa processes. Both leaders emphasized the importance of managing differences, with President Xi reiterating his vision for “the dragon and the elephant” to collaborate for mutual benefit.

Despite these positive overtures, significant challenges persist. The two countries continue to grapple with a long-standing border dispute, with tens of thousands of troops still deployed along contested lines. India also faces a burgeoning trade deficit with China, exceeding $99 billion, and concerns over market access and reciprocal tariffs remain.

This renewed engagement with China is viewed as a manifestation of India’s “strategic autonomy” policy, aiming to balance its international relationships. However, it also presents potential geopolitical complexities, especially ahead of the upcoming Quad summit, which includes the US, Japan, and Australia. The potential presence and rhetoric of former President Trump at such forums could test the nascent synergy between Delhi and Beijing.

India-US relations are reportedly at a low point, exacerbated by differing stances on international conflicts and past diplomatic irritants. Yet, India continues to keep channels open for negotiation with the US, its largest trading partner, highlighting the delicate balancing act Delhi must perform as it recalibrates its foreign policy in a rapidly shifting global landscape.

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